What Effects will The Election Have on The Real Estate Market?
Each year, we engage with thousands of individuals across the UK to gauge their sentiments regarding moving homes. As a general election looms on the horizon, we sought to understand its potential impact on the nation’s relocation plans in 2024.
Our findings indicate that 95% of individuals intending to relocate state that the forthcoming election will not influence their plans.
According to our property expert, Tim Bannister, “With the summer general election date now confirmed, we anticipate a consistent level of activity in the housing market leading up to the election, mirroring past trends. This sentiment is reinforced by the prevailing attitude among prospective home-movers, the majority of whom express that the election will not deter their plans.”
Bannister further explains, “Over the past four years, individuals contemplating relocation have encountered various hurdles, including the global pandemic, housing supply shortages, and fluctuating prices. For many, 2024 represents an opportune moment to execute their relocation aspirations, and they are resolute in pursuing their objectives to secure their next residence.”
What Happened around Past Elections?
We’ve analyzed the housing market performance during previous general elections, specifically in 2015 and 2019. Notably, the market maintained stability both before and during the election periods.
Interestingly, there was a surge in activity observed after both the 2015 and 2019 elections.
In 2015, buyer demand remained steady leading up to the May election, with a subsequent increase in the following month, marking an 18% rise compared to the preceding year.
Likewise, in 2019, demand remained consistent in the months prior, experiencing a 13% annual increase in the election month of December. This was followed by a further 14% rise in buyer inquiries in January 2020.
Buyer demand is gauged by analyzing the volume of enquiries concerning homes for sale.
Buyer demand around 2015 election
| Month | Demand (year on year change) |
|---|---|
| March 2015 | +5% |
| April 2015 | +6% |
| May 2015 (election month) | +9% |
| June 2015 | +18% |
Buyer demand around 2019 election
| Month | Demand (year on year change) |
|---|---|
| October 2019 | +1% |
| November 2019 | +4% |
| December 2019 (election month) | +13% |
| January 2020 | +14% |
In Conclusion
In essence, while historical trends suggest a resilient housing market in the lead-up to and following a general election, the true impact of the 2024 election on housing dynamics will hinge on various factors, including potential policy changes and economic shifts.
